Review of trades in week 14-18 April 2008

1) First Resources

Long
Entry price 1.03
30 day ATR 0.09
1.5X ATR30 0.135
Cut loss stop on 1.5ATR30 0.895
Recommended cut loss 0.885
Loss on recommended cut loss -1517.878899

Target price 1.38
Profit on target price 3414.575381

Reward/risk ratio 2.249570361

Oil has been hitting record highs. Commodity plays will be in focus over the coming weeks. I do not envision a drop in commodity prices in the near term at least until the FOMC announcement on 30 April 2008. Looking at the charts of Golden Agri, IndoAgri and Wilmar I compared them with First Resources and found that First Resources is likely to recover back to its mean price of around 1.30.

First Resources is having their AGM on 29 April 2008 and are having a resolution to have share buy back schemes during the EGM to be held also on 29 April 2008. I believe this will be the catalyst for a move up this week.



Hence decision was made to enter FR. It looked possible for a break out by TA on 17 April 2008. However it was not to be. In any case my cut loss is below the low of 0.89. TA wise it looks like First Resources will break out soon.

Entered 10 lots at 1.03
Last closing price 0.98
Paper loss = -$581

Trades from last week

1) Fibrechem

Stop loss of 0.705 was not triggered this week. Fibrechem is having their AGM on 29 April 2008. China stocks have been weak because of China's talk about cooling the economy and tackling inflation. It is a good point to note that while QDII was the talk of the town 2 weeks ago, China stocks are now avoided by and large.

Long
Entry price 0.805
30 day ATR 0.06
1.5X ATR30 0.09
Cut loss stop on 1.5ATR30 0.715
Recommended cut loss 0.705
Loss on recommended cut loss -1053.523309


Target price 0.95
Profit on target price 1387.792446


Reward/risk ratio 1.317286892

Last closing price 0.73

Paper loss = -$812

2) COSCO

COSCO recovered from it's lows early in the week to close above $3. It was close to my stop limit on Monday but it did not trigger thanks to correct use of the stop limit from last week's error on Ferrochina (lesson learnt!). Intend to hold this till the results announcement on 30 April 2008.

Long
Entry price 2.84
30 day ATR 0.24
1.5X ATR30 0.36
Cut loss stop on 1.5ATR30 2.48
Recommended cut loss 2.78
Loss on recommended cut loss -159.8411916


Target price 3.2
Profit on target price 677.1813528


Reward/risk ratio 4.236588491

Last closing price 3.02
Paper profit = $312

Up to date realized profit/loss = $1283

Unrealized profit/loss = -$1081