| Return of Equity (ROE) | Net income/Equity | |||
| Net income | Equity | ROE | ROE growth | |
| 2007 | 31,914 | 181,574 | 17.57630498 | 11.98320581 |
| 2006 | 25,567 | 162,894 | 15.69548295 | -21.29386054 |
| 2005 | 18,322 | 91,877 | 19.94187882 | 2.14511304 |
| 2004 | 15,302 | 78,379 | 19.52308654 | -82.91239343 |
| 2003 | 8,954 | 7,837 | 114.2529029 | |
| 2002 | 7,019 |
ROE is >15%. Profitable company.
| Net Profit Margin (NPM) | Net income/Revenue | |||
| Net income | Revenue | NPM | NPM growth | |
| 2007 | 31,914 | 140,399 | 22.73093113 | -6.857149094 |
| 2006 | 25,567 | 104,764 | 24.40437555 | -6.131996613 |
| 2005 | 18,322 | 70,473 | 25.9986094 | 2.295404166 |
| 2004 | 15,302 | 60,208 | 25.41522721 | -3.595847996 |
| 2003 | 8,954 | 33,964 | 26.3632081 | -10.33354224 |
| 2002 | 7,019 | 23,873 | 29.40141583 |
NPM has been flat or even dropping which is not a good sign of competitiveness.
| Liquidity | |||
| Total Current Assets | Total Current Liabilities | Current ratio | |
| 2007 | 111,280 | 36,198 | 3.074202995 |
| 2006 | 103,241 | 38,978 | 2.648699266 |
| 2005 | 68,396 | 22,179 | 3.083818026 |
| 2004 | 67,666 | 23,688 | 2.856551841 |
| 2003 | 28,151 | 36,228 | 0.7770509 |
No liquidity problems.
| Solvency | |||
| Long Term Debt | Total Shareholder Equity | LT Debt/Equity Ratio | |
| 2007 | 2960 | 181,574 | 1.630189344 |
| 2006 | 2946 | 162,894 | 1.808538068 |
| 2005 | 2581 | 91,877 | 2.809190548 |
| 2004 | 2490 | 78,379 | 3.176871356 |
| 2003 | 23394 | 7,837 | 298.5070818 |
Little or negligible long term debt.
| Free Cash Flow | ||||
| Net cash from operating activities | Capital expenditures | Free Cash Flow(FCF) | FCF/Revenue | |
| 2007 | 34,027 | 12723 | 21,304 | 15.17389725 |
| 2006 | 27,765 | 31668 | -3,903 | -3.725516399 |
| 2005 | 13,013 | 10029 | 2,984 | 4.23424574 |
| 2004 | 3,362 | 1503 | 1,859 | 3.087629551 |
| 2003 | 9,651 | 1830 | 7,821 | 23.02732305 |
They generated better free cash flow in 2007. However dividend payout ratio is only about 10% at best.
Not a bad set of numbers.
Let's look at valuation....
| EPS Data | EPS | EPS growth |
| 2007 | 3.78 | 18.86792453 |
| 2006 | 3.18 | 33.05439331 |
| 2005 | 2.39 | 4.366812227 |
| 2004 | 2.29 | 42.23602484 |
| 2003 | 1.61 |
EPS growth has been >15% for past 2 years, I use a EPS growth rate of 10%.
| Projected EPS at yr end | |
| End year 1 | 4.158 |
| End year 2 | 4.5738 |
| End year 3 | 5.03118 |
| End year 4 | 5.534298 |
| End year 5 | 6.0877278 |
| Total EPS for next 5 years | 25.3850058 |
| Current price of stock | 0.96 |
| Current EPS | 0.0378 |
| Current PE ratio | 25.3968254 |
I use a future PE of 17 to calculate the price in 5 years time. Hence price based on EPS of 6.08 and PE of 17 in 5 years would be $1.03
Dividend payout ratio is about 10%. So for total EPS for next 5 years = 25.38 cents. Dividend = 2.53 cents.
Price based on dividend payout would be $0.925(current price) + $0.0253 = $0.95
Using a desired return rate of 5% dividend yield,
| Present price to pay for stock | |
| Year 5 | 0.904761905 |
| Year 4 | 0.861678005 |
| Year 3 | 0.820645719 |
| Year 2 | 0.781567351 |
| Year 1 | 0.744349858 |
Present price to pay for stock should be $0.744 if I want 5% dividend yield.
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