Long
Entry price 0.805
30 day ATR 0.06
1.5X ATR30 0.09
Cut loss stop on 1.5ATR30 0.715
Recommended cut loss 0.705
Loss on recommended cut loss -1053.523309
Target price 0.95
Profit on target price 1387.792446
China reduced the stamp tax duty on stock market from 0.3% to 0.1% this week. SSE rallied 9.29% on Thursday.
Fibrechem went to a high of 0.86 on Thursday. I sensed that this might be a knee jerk reaction but was not sure if it could carry on to the next day. Hence I decided to set a stop limit at breakeven level. Personally I did not expect Fibrechem to retrace that much. But it did.
Hence sold Fibrechem at 0.815.
Profit/Loss = +$30
One might say that why not take profit when it was 0.86? On hindsight we are all geniuses. I'm trying to learn to let my profits run and limit my losses. So this is still a lesson in progress.
1) First Resources
Long
Entry price 1.03
30 day ATR 0.09
1.5X ATR30 0.135
Cut loss stop on 1.5ATR30 0.895
Recommended cut loss 0.885
Loss on recommended cut loss -1517.878899
Target price 1.38
Profit on target price 3414.575381
Reward/risk ratio 2.249570361
I said that First Resources would start to move up this week in view of the coming EGM to vote for the 10% share buy back mandate. First Resources had several big lots buy ups. But there was also selling later on.
Well 29 April 2008 is next Tuesday. So I'll just hang on. I believe this counter has very good potential.
Chart wise First Resources has been testing the downward trendline for the past 2 days but has been unable to close above it.
We'll see if the share buy back becomes the catalyst for a mean revert for this stock.
Last closing price 0.995
Paper loss = -$432
2) COSCO
Long
Entry price 2.84
30 day ATR 0.24
1.5X ATR30 0.36
Cut loss stop on 1.5ATR30 2.48
Recommended cut loss 2.78
Loss on recommended cut loss -159.8411916
Target price 3.2
Profit on target price 677.1813528
Reward/risk ratio 4.236588491
COSCO broke past my target price this week. And I let my profits run. So while letting profits run plan failed on Fibrechem, it succeeded for COSCO. My stop for COSCO on Friday was 3.34. It came close but not close enough.
China COSCO reported good earnings for FY2007 on 23 April and that gave COSCO Corp a boost here in Singapore.
COSCO had 2 bottoms around 2.80. If it closes above 3.92 it will confirm this as a double bottom. Current price of 3.40+ means we are still 20% away from confirming it. Means more upside at least till that psychological resistance.
50 day MA is not so much of a concern because it has already tested it twice.
RSI is not overbought range.
Plus COSCO has broken above the downward trendline from Nov 2007.
Fundamentals
1) CHINA COSCO did well and the shipping business is growing. JV with Indonesia on the Coal ships orders will likely go to COSCO Corp.
2) China shipping and shipyards as a whole are supported by Beijing and growing and aiming to overtake South Korea as world number one. Lots of room for expansion for COSCO.
3) COSCO forays into shipbuilding and repair represents different market share compared to Kepcorp and Sembmarine. Plus China exposure also means the demand is better.
4) COSCO Corp VP Mr Ji stated in an interview dated 27 March 2008 that they were going to make a decision soon on whether to increase their stake in the shipyard from 51% to 80%. When will this decision be made known?
So looking at it, this stock has a lot of things going for it. Plus the drop in price 2 weeks ago represents the correction has been factored in already. If not for that drop how much would COSCO be priced at today?
We will see what happens on 30 April 2008 when China COSCO and COSCO Corp both release their 1Q 2008 results. Incidentally the USA FOMC Announcement will be on the same day. 1 May 2008 is a Public Holiday in Singapore though. So markets will be closed.
Last closing price 3.47
Paper profit = $1208
Up to date realized profit/loss = $1283 +$30 = $1313
Unrealized profit/loss = $776
