Tuesday, March 18, 2008
First Resources
First resources chart looks like a dead cat bounce pattern (DCB).
Statistically, 44% of the time DCB's occur in the middle third of the yearly price range which is hte case here.
Event declines on average are 31% but can go from 15-75%. For FR it is 25%. Price gaps are the norm.
Bounces usually take about 23 days. 22% of the time the bounce will be high enough to close the gap made during the event. Then after the peak of the bounce prices decline an average of 30% from the high of the bounce.
Most DCB will bottom 18% below the initial event decline low. This gives a possible bottom of 0.89 for FR if indeed this is a DCB.
However it is noted that for FR the event that caused the decline seems to have been resolved rather than due to just analyst calling for a buy on an "undervalued" stock etc.
I'll be watching this one.
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