Thursday, April 3, 2008
STX PO
STX PO has a consolidation descending triangle pattern. Breakout at 2.90 (trendline) which occurred today. However it did not breach the 2.96 high of the consolidation pattern.
It is currently retracing as well.
Target is 3.34, the high on 7 March.
Entry 2.97, target 3.34.
The cut loss level is tricky. 2.80 seems a strong support level for this stock with the necktie of the 200 and 25 day and maybe even 50 day MA crossing at that price level.
A 2.80 cut loss would give this counter a reward/risk ratio of 1.82. But the 30 day average true range is 0.19. Hence the danger of being cut out on a whipsaw is very much higher. The safer stop on my system would be 2.63 based on low of 27 March and volatility (2.97 - [1.5x0.19])= 2.69. However that would put this stock's reward/risk ratio at 0.96 (<1) and hence would fail my criteria for entering on the stock.
Just a note that most counters have run up quite a bit over the past few days and the upside is not very much in my opinion. Downside risks are much higher.
Might be more prudent to wait for the shorting opportunities to arise when the markets drop back again.
Of course......I HOPE I AM WRONG. :D
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